A few obvious ambushes for #Ukraine in the “28 points peace plan” leaked by Ukrainian media (but note, many sources say it’s not the real plan passed to Ukraine’s government but a modified version):

• 7 b,d - a single attack from Ukraine on Russia basically cancels the whole US guarantees, and it is a fantastic recipe for repeat of 1999 “Basayev’s raid on Dagestan”, that is where a single “rogue commander” can restart the war at a moment suitable for Russia. Alternatively, if Russia can’t recruit any “rogue commander” it can just stage a terrorist attack on its territory unavoidably discovering “Ukrainian traces”. This is literally how Russia cancelled its peace agreement with Ichkeria in 1999.
• 16 - legal ban on invading each other. Except Russia already has a article 353 of Criminal Code which makes it a crime to “plan, prepare or execute an aggressive war” and you can see, Russian courts are overloaded with criminal cases against Putin (not)
• 20 b - removal of any restrictions of Russian and Ukrainian schools and media in both countries. Absurd, granted that there is literally 0 (zero) Ukrainian schools or media in Russia, who has even purged Ukrainian libraries since 2014.
• 20 c - “ban on Nazism” in both countries - the absurdity of this point is that Nazism is already banned in both Russia and Ukraine. Except in Russia, the law called “ban on Nazism” doesn’t really ban Nazism but… anti-Soviet fighters, that may or may not include Nazis. Add to that the highly flexible approach to written law in Russia, which involves absence of prosecution of outright Nazis like Milchakov, “Topaz”, “Espanola”, simply because “they are ours”.
• 21 subpoints about territorial changes chaotically mix de facto recognition and “international recognition” in a way that implies that the Kramators and Slovyansk aglomeration will become a massive legal blackhole, where neither Ukrainian nor Russian armed forces will be present, which of course means control by “Wagner” or some other such shady structure.
• 26 - mutual amnesty for everyone. A fantastic lesson and prize for Russian war criminals which essentially proves that doing war crimes works in long term.
• 27 - “execution of the treaty will be controlled”, except it won’t because another item bans presence of any foreign forces in Ukraine or the occupied territories. Which means there will be no external oversight and it will be the fox who will be guarding the henhouse.

And that’s pretty much it! I don’t see item 6 which assumes “reduction of Ukrainian armed forces to 600’000” as an ambush, because it’s really much higher than it was before 2022 (250k)! Compared to today wartime 1m it’s 40% reduction, but at ceasefire Ukraine won’t be able nor willing to sustain such a large army anyway.

Granted that this is not the final agreement but likely some kind of test for the public opinion I wouldn’t say it’s “capitulation of Ukraine”. Yes, voluntary surrender of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk is painful, but then you need to think how much longer they will hold and at which cost. I don’t know that and I assume only Kyiv knows how much reserves they still have.

I would say the opposite, the plan much more resembles capitulation of Russia because the mere fact that Russia agrees to “line of contact” and exit from Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk region is a viisible failure of Putin’s explicit 2023 plan of annexation.

Everything else in this plan is Putin’s failure of his 2022 implicit plan of regime change in Ukraine, so in total it’s a complete Russian failure in the war, because at the cost of 1.5m soldiers and setting their economy 10 year back they gain burned out ruins of town they themselves ruined and promise of partial lifting of sanctions, so merely a chance to gradually start returning to pre-2022 trade, except nobody will treat them the same way and trust them.

And at on top of all this they will get ~1m violent and traumatised veterans returning home to… what exactly? Towns that were underinvested shitholes even before 2022 and for the last few years they have degraded even further because Russia redirected all money on the war effort.